Home Prices Are Rebounding

If you’re following the news today, you may feel a bit unsure about what’s happening with home prices and fear whether or not the worst is yet to come. That’s because today’s headlines are painting an unnecessarily negative picture. If we take a year-over-year view, home prices did drop some, but that’s because we’re comparing to a ‘unicorn’ year when prices peaked well beyond the norm.To avoid an unfair comparison to that previous peak, we need to look at monthly data. And that tells a very different and much more positive story. While local home price trends still vary by market, here’s what the national data tells us.The graphs below use recent monthly reports from three sources to show the worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are appreciating nationally.  Looking at this monthly view, we can see the past year in the housing market can be divided into two parts. In the first half of 2022, home prices were going up, and fast. However, starting in July, prices began to go down (shown in red in the graphs above). By around August or September, the trend started to stabilize. But, looking at the most recent data for early 2023, these graphs also show that prices are going up again.The fact that all three reports show prices have been going up for three or more straight months is an encouraging sign for the housing market. The month-over-month data indicates a national shift is happening – home prices are rising again.Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, says this about home price trends: “If I were trying to make a case that the decline in home prices that began in June 2022 had definitively ended in January 2023, April’s data would bolster my argument.” Experts believe one of the reasons prices didn’t crash like some expected is because there aren’t enough available homes for the number of people who want to buy them. Even with today’s mortgage rates, there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available for sale.Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains how more demand than supply keeps upward pressure on prices:“History has shown that higher rates may take the steam out of rising prices, but it doesn’t cause them to collapse entirely. This is especially true in today’s housing market, where the demand for homes continues to outpace supply, keeping the pressure on house prices."Doug Duncan, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, states home price growth is exceeding expectations thanks to that high demand:“. . . housing prices continue to show stronger growth than what was previously expected . . . Housing’s performance is a testimony to the strength of demographic-related demand . . .”Here’s How This Affects YouBuyers: If you've been holding off on buying because you were worried the value of your home would go down, knowing home prices have bounced back should bring you some relief. It also gives you the opportunity to own something that usually becomes more valuable as time goes on.Sellers: If you've been waiting to sell your house because you were concerned about how changing home prices would affect its value, it might be a good idea to team up with a real estate agent to list your house. You don't have to wait any longer because the latest data suggests things are turning in your favor.Bottom LineIf you delayed your moving plans because you were concerned about home prices dropping, the latest data reveals the worst is already over, and prices are appreciating nationally. Partner with a local real estate agent so you know what's happening with home prices in your area.

How Remote Work Expands Your Homebuying Horizons

Even as some companies transition back into the office, remote work remains a popular choice for many professionals. So, if you currently enjoy working from home or hope to be able to soon, you’re not alone. According to a recent survey, most working professionals want to work either fully remote or hybrid (see below):This trend is good news if you’re looking to buy a home because a remote or hybrid work setup can help you overcome some of today’s affordability and housing inventory challenges.More Work Flexibility Equals More Home OptionsRemote or hybrid work opens up a world of opportunities. That’s because it allows you to broaden your search for your next home since you’re no longer limited to living close to your workplace. With the freedom to work from anywhere, you can explore more affordable areas that may be located farther away from bustling city centers or your office. This flexibility can be a game changer while higher mortgage rates are making it difficult for some homebuyers to afford a home.An article from the New York Times (NYT) highlights how remote work can greatly assist you in overcoming that challenge:“. . . take advantage of the opportunity remote work has presented to move to more affordable communities (either farther out in the suburbs, or in another part of the country).”And, since the supply of homes for sale is still so low, another key challenge for you today may be finding something with all of the features you want and need. Because remote work allows you to broaden your search radius to include additional areas, you may actually have less trouble finding a home with the features you want the most because you’ll have a bigger pool of options to pick from.Working remotely gives you the flexibility to find an affordable home with the features you want. In other words, you have a better chance of getting what you need without blowing your budget. Bottom LineWorking remotely not only gives you more flexibility in your job but also presents a great chance to broaden your search for a home. Since you're not limited to a specific location, you have the opportunity to explore more options. Connect with a local real estate agent to discuss how this can expand your choices and help you find the perfect home.

Momentum Is Building for New Home Construction

If you’re in the process of looking for a home today, you know the supply of homes for sale is low because you’re feeling the impact of having a limited pool of options. And, if your biggest hurdle right now is that you’re having trouble finding something you like, don’t forget that a newly built home is a great option.As a recent article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says: “Home buyers continue to be met with limited housing options during what’s typically the real estate market’s busiest season. . . . The current supply of existing homes is about half the level it was in 2019 . . . Meanwhile, the market for new construction is a bright spot.”Here’s a look at a key metric that shows just how much new home construction is ramping up nationwide. It’s called new residential completions. Basically, completions are newly built homes that are finished and ready to move into.The graph below uses data from the Census to show the trend of new-home completions over time, including the long-term average for the number of finished housing units (shown in black on the graph):As you can see on the left (shown in orange), leading up to the housing crash, builders exceeded that average. The result was an oversupply of homes on the market, so home values declined. That was one of the factors that led to the housing crash back in 2008.Since then, the level of new home construction has fallen off, and builders haven’t built enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding left the housing market with a multi-year inventory deficit. And, that deficit is part of what makes inventory so low right now.But, here’s the good news. The green on the right shows that according to the latest report from the Census, builders are matching the long-term average right now. And that means they’re bringing more newly built homes to the market than they have in recent memory.And residential starts and permits are also gaining momentum. Starts are homes where the construction has officially kicked off. Permits are homes where builders are planning to break ground soon. Since both are up, it’s a sign there are even more newly built homes coming soon.What This Means for YouMore newly built homes in various stages of the construction process means your pool of options just got bigger. If you’re looking to move right now and timing is important to you, reach out to a local real estate professional to explore the homes that were recently completed in your area. If construction is done on those homes, you should be able to move in quickly.But, if you can wait a bit and the idea of customizing a home from the ground up appeals to you, ask that same agent about the homes in your area that are in the process of being built. If you buy a home that’s still in the works, you can help pick the features and finishings along the way. And when none of the homes you’ve looked at so far are to your liking, being able to tailor one to your taste may be your best option.Either way, a trusted real estate agent is a crucial part of the process. They’ll know exactly what’s available in your area and can base their recommendations on your unique needs, desired neighborhoods, and more.Bottom LineSo, if you're having trouble finding a home you like while inventory is so low, it may be time to consider looking into new-home construction. If you'd like to start that conversation, reach out to a trusted local real estate professional who’s an expert on what’s available in your area.

Two Questions To Ask Yourself if You’re Considering Buying a Home

If you’re thinking of buying a home, chances are you’re paying attention to just about everything you hear about the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media, your real estate agent, conversations with friends and loved ones, overhearing someone chatting at the local supermarket, the list goes on and on. Most likely, home prices and mortgage rates are coming up a lot. To help cut through the noise and give you the information you need most, take a look at what the data says. Here are the top two questions you need to ask yourself about home prices and mortgage rates as you make your decision: 1. Where Do I Think Home Prices Are Heading?One reliable place you can turn to for that information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are projecting slight depreciation this year (see the red in the graph below). But here’s the context you need most. The worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are actually appreciating again in many markets. Not to mention, the small 0.37% depreciation HPES is showing for 2023 is far from the crash some people originally said would happen.Now, let’s look to the future. The green in the graph below shows prices have turned a corner and are expected to appreciate in 2024 and beyond. After this year, the HPES is forecasting home price appreciation returning to more normal levels for the next several years.So, why does this matter to you? It means your home will likely grow in value and you should gain home equity in the years ahead, but only if you buy now. If you wait, based on these forecasts, the home will only cost you more later on.  2. Where Do I Think Mortgage Rates Are Heading?Over the past year, mortgage rates have risen in response to economic uncertainty, inflation, and more. We know based on the latest reports that inflation, while still high, has moderated from its peak. This is an encouraging sign for the market and for mortgage rates. Here’s why.When inflation cools, mortgage rates generally fall in response. This may be why some experts are saying mortgage rates will pull back slightly over the next few quarters and settle somewhere around roughly 5.5 and 6% on average.But, not even the experts can say with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will be next year, or even next month. That’s because there are so many factors that can impact what happens. So, to give you a lens into the various possible outcomes, here’s what you should consider:If you buy now and mortgage rates don’t change: You made a good move since home prices are projected to grow with time, so at least you beat rising prices.If you buy now and mortgage rates fall (as projected): You probably still made a good decision because you got the house before home prices appreciated more. And, you can always refinance your home later on if rates are lower.If you buy now and mortgage rates rise: If this happens, you made a great decision because you bought before both the price of the home and the mortgage rate went up.Bottom LineIf you’re thinking about buying a home, you need to know what’s expected with home prices and mortgage rates. While no one can say for certain where they’ll go, expert projections can give you powerful information to keep you informed. Lean on a trusted real estate professional who can add in an expert opinion on your local market.